Pre-determined Elements

A Glimpse of 2045

Mara is twenty-six. She graduated from Staunton High School in 2037. Today, she lives above an old hardware store outside Staunton where the floorboards still creak with 19th-century history, but the walls now hum with 21st-century fiber optics.

Thanks to a community emphasis on alternative mobility, collaboration with the Buckingham Branch Railroad, and regional parks departments, she pedals into downtown Staunton at first light, following the greenway as it threads past old brick warehouses and Lewis Creek, then rolls directly into the station where she catches the morning train. On the short ride to Harrisonburg, she catches sight of a different kind of movement across the valley: mostly electric, self-driving trucks running in coordinated swarms down I-81, spaced with mathematical precision like a school of silver fish. They move freight with a quiet efficiency that replaced the chaotic, fume-choked congestion that was so common decades ago. I-81 is now an example of a modern, AI-enabled logistics corridor serving nearly 40% of all truck movements in Virginia.

Mara works for a logistics company that used to be exactly what you’d expect—locally owned, practical, quietly important. When the founder reached retirement age in the late 2020s, the firm could have been sold off to an outside private equity group and stripped for parts. Instead, local capital came in with a different plan: modernize the operation with an emphasis on AI, transition it to an Employee Stock Ownership Plan, and keep the wealth rooted in the Valley. She joined right as the shift happened. Now she’s a shareholder with a vested stake and a competitive annual salary—one of hundreds—and she feels the difference in the small things: mechanics noticing waste, dispatchers taking training seriously, and colleagues arguing about route efficiency like it’s their money, because it is.

Passenger rail glides past Virginia’s I-81 corridor as self-driving truck convoys move freight more efficiently through the valleys—one of the pre-determined elements shaping the region’s logistics, mobility, and economic future due to the $3B capital improvement program.

Her role is AI Operations in a human-in-the-loop model. She works alongside systems that forecast congestion, balance charging schedules, and flag anomalies in the autonomous fleet. But nothing moves at scale without a human making the call on what’s acceptable, what’s safe, and what tradeoffs are worth it. The shift to coordinated autonomous freight changed the corridor in ways people didn’t anticipate. I-81 still carries heavy movement, but it’s steadier now—platooned electric trucks holding consistent spacing, fewer shockwave slowdowns, fewer secondary accidents, and less time idling in place. Air quality improved. Noise faded into the background. The ripple effects showed up in state and municipal planning: in stretches where I-81 had been widened to three and even four lanes, communities stopped treating the highway as an untouchable wall and started treating it as redesignable infrastructure. Some places repurposed excess right-of-way into green buffers and stormwater systems; others reclaimed frontage for mixed-use development near interchanges; others built new crossings and trail links that reconnected neighborhoods long divided by fast traffic.

She learned the language for this at Blue Ridge Community College, in one of the first graduating cohorts of the advanced mechatronics program—before it became one of the default options for students who wanted a future that didn’t require leaving. Her instructors taught robotics maintenance and sensor systems, yes, but also the real-world skills that make modern industry work: advanced analytics, compliance, and systems thinking. That training gave her range. Some classmates went into advanced biopharma manufacturing at Merck. Others went to the Volvo plant in the New River Valley. Mara ended up in the layer that connects it all.

The ride home is her daily reminder that the region’s future is no longer hypothetical—it’s visible out the window. Solar farms lie low across pastures, panels catching the early evening light like a second sky pinned to the ground, sheep grazing beneath. She passes one of the expansive agricultural commons—pastoral land held in a shared trust, open to young farmers who can’t afford to buy acreage outright. It’s the kind of institution the valley built once it admitted land was finite and the old hand-me-down model wouldn’t survive the pressure—while also recognizing that preserving the region’s agricultural heritage was non-negotiable. There are greenhouse tunnels, grazing rotations, and new barns funded by patient capital that expects modest financial returns, but high social returns.

When Mara steps off the train, she doesn’t feel like she’s living in the dark monotone future as cast by Hollywood. She feels like she’s living in a region that learned to take care of itself. The landscape still reflects the rural heritage she grew up knowing, but the advancements align with a future accelerating fast. Businesses are staying put more often because ownership transition is treated as strategy, not a last-minute decision. Young people have more alternatives, and more options because training and opportunities are aligned to the future economy, not a nostalgic one controlled by outside interests.

Before bed, she checks the swarm operations feed one last time—self-driving trucks moving smoothly down I-81, AI suggesting reroutes, and human operators signing off on edge cases. She thinks of the Valley the way her grandparents did, but updated: not a place stuck in the past, and not a place that gave up on the future—just a place where the future is happening on purpose.

A Bit About Predetermined Elements

Most conversations about “the future” aren’t actually about the future. They’re about opinions—what we want to be true, what we fear, what we assume will happen because it feels plausible in the moment.

The story about Mara is fiction, but the forces driving it are not.

Peter Schwartz, in The Art of the Long View, offers a simple distinction: there are things we can’t reliably predict, and there are things that are already in motion—events that have “happened” in the sense that their outcomes are effectively baked into the system, even if we haven’t felt the full effects yet.

He calls these predetermined elements.

I’m going to stick to his terminology because it precisely captures the dynamic: specific drivers are already in motion—locked in by demographics, capital investment, infrastructure commitments, institutional constraints, and physics.

If we can name those elements clearly, we can stop chasing unlikely futures and start designing for the most probable outcomes—where our choices still matter.

What a “predetermined element” is (and isn’t)

A pre-determined element is not a prophecy. It’s not “what I think will happen.” It’s a force with momentum—something already in the pipeline.

Demographics are the classic example: if a large cohort is already aging, the wave is coming. You can debate how communities respond, but you can’t debate that the age profile is shifting. Infrastructure is another: when a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar corridor program is funded and underway, that corridor’s function will change—whether local politics are ready or not.

When we think about pre-determined elements, there are really two sides to consider.

First is the force already in motion—the demographic shift, the infrastructure investment, the capital that’s been committed. These elements set the direction of travel.

Second are the second- and third-order effects of that force: how people, institutions, and markets respond—or fail to respond. This is what scenario planners call a critical uncertainty.

A helpful way to hold it:

• Pre-determined elements are the constraints and momentum.

• Critical uncertainties are the responses that determine how those forces express themselves—through policy, governance, culture, capital, adoption, and execution.

Good long-view thinking doesn’t try to “call” one future. It accepts what’s already in motion, then focuses attention on the responses that will shape the most probable outcomes—where intervention and choice still matter.

Why this matters in the Shenandoah and New River Valleys

Western Virginia, including the Shenandoah Valley and the New River Valley, is often described by those outside of the region as peripheral—beautiful places, good people, “a little behind.” Perhaps “great places to retire” or “great places to visit for a long weekend away from DC.”

That framing misses what’s happening.

This region is not isolated in the way it used to be, and it’s certainly not immune to the forces remaking the country and the world. This region, my region, is sitting at the intersection of freight movement, broadband-enabled labor shifts (e.g. the Zoom Class), a growing retiree cohort, major industrial anchors, and land-use pressure. That is not a sleepy backdrop. That is a set of structural forces that will determine what kind of places we live in.

The risk isn’t change. Change is guaranteed. The risk is letting change happen by default—without an explicit point of view about what we want to preserve, what we want to build, and what tradeoffs we’re willing to make. This is where imagination comes into play.

The five predetermined elements in motion

For my own practice and exploration, I’m going to post a series that digs into the major elements already shaping this region—these valleys. This first post is just a glimpse to structure the conversation.

1. Demographics are inevitable
   The common wisdom says rural areas are dying. While this can be argued true in other parts of the country, in many parts of our region, the data says something else is happening. While deaths outnumber births in many counties, specific pockets are seeing an influx of immigration and even "talent inversion."
   
   Look at Pulaski County: between 2020 and 2024, Pulaski saw a 6.1% growth in the prime 25–44 workforce demographic—gaining 465 people in that cohort. That growth rate outpaced Loudoun County. The predetermined element of demographic change isn't decline; it's a restructuring. Additionally, the "Halfback" phenomenon—retirees migrating from the Northeast to the South, then settling halfway back in Virginia—has driven a 113% increase in migration to Virginia's retirement counties including counties like Shenandoah, Frederick, and Franklin. The future population is already being "imported."
   
   Most importantly, the “Silver Tsunami” is approaching and stands to be the dominant demographic force already reshaping Virginia’s rural economy. By 2030, one in five Virginians will be over 65, and the state’s 65+ population is expected to nearly double between 2010 and 2030. This isn’t just an age shift; it’s a growth driver: the Weldon Cooper Center notes that the increase in seniors accounts for roughly 53% of Virginia’s total population growth over that period.
   
   The practical implication is a predictable support inversion: fewer working-age adults per older adult, and therefore higher pressure on healthcare access, EMS, caregiving capacity, and local government budgeting. Weldon Cooper Center projections track this in the “old-age dependency” proxy (population 65+ relative to ages 20–64), rising from 20% in 2010 to 33% by 2030 statewide. In many of Virginia’s rural localities, the concentration is even more pronounced; recent projections highlight that multiple rural counties including Highland will have over 35% of residents age 65+ by 2030.

   
   What’s most interesting to me is that the “Silver Tsunami” is not only a massive shift in age—it’s a once-in-a-generation wealth and ownership transition. Nationally, just over half (52.3%) of U.S. employer businesses are owned by people 55+, meaning a large share of Main Street is approaching an exit window. At the same time, the Exit Planning Institute reports that 75% of business owners want to exit within the next 10 years—a mismatch between owner intent and market readiness that creates real risk of closures, distressed sales, and consolidation. Project Equity estimates this “Silver Tsunami” includes 2.9 million firms, employing roughly 32 million workers and generating about $6.5 trillion in annual revenue nationally—a reminder that this is not a niche issue; it is a structural economic event. The “Silver Tsunami” is a real opportunity to shift ownership to employees and younger workers to maintain and increase place-based capital and increase shared equity in communities.
   

2. Infrastructure and mobility must be at the center
   I used to view freight movement as a non-glamorous side story; I now correctly see it as a defining feature as our region services 30% of Virginia’s freight movements. The $3 billion I-81 Corridor Improvement Program is funded and active, physically reaffirming this region as the East Coast’s freight spine. If local planning doesn’t keep up, traffic friction remains part of daily life with the only solution being more and more lanes. Considering 1-81 is a regional asset, we have a real opportunity to attract and support the next generation of logistics and automation including green trucking, AI-driven freight systems, drone and unmanned avionics.
   
   Meanwhile, the extension of passenger rail to the New River Valley by 2027 with the goal to provide two daily roundtrips to Washington, D.C. will boost connectivity for Virginia Tech and Radford University and the completion of universal broadband projects by 2026 will further dissolve the "friction of distance" that once defined rural life. People will continue to migrate here—a good thing!
   

3. Existing industrial anchors provide momentum
   We often talk about "attracting jobs," but we ignore the jobs that are already locked in. Merck is executing a $3 billion expansion in Elkton.10 Volvo Trucks has poured $400 million into its Dublin plant to prepare for electric transport. BAE Systems has secured a contract ceiling of $1.3 billion at the Radford Army Ammunition Plant.
   
   These are generational capital commitments. They predetermine that the region will remain a manufacturing hub for the decades to come and advanced manufacturing and automation is a very real and growing opportunity. The region inherits both a stability advantage and a constraint: we must produce the bio-technicians, automation engineers, and robotics operators to run the facilities we have now and in the future, or the labor will be imported, leaving locals behind.
   

4. Land is finite
   Housing demand, agricultural emphasis, and energy generation are all pulling on the same finite landscape. This isn't an emotional debate; it's physics.
   
   Utility-scale solar requires roughly 7.5 acres of land per megawatt. With state mandates requiring 100% renewable energy, the pressure on flat, open land is absolute. This comes at a time when Virginia has already lost 500,000 acres of agricultural land between 2017 and 2022.
   
   Simultaneously, we are facing a housing deficit that borders on a crisis. In the New River Valley alone, projections indicate a shortage of up to 11,406 units by 2040. In Harrisonburg, the immediate need is for 455–616 rental units just to stabilize the market. If communities don’t define their priorities early, the outcomes will be decided by the loudest incentives, not the best intentions.
   

5. Stewardship is key
   Water and soil never were infinite resources; they are regulated constraints. The 2025 Chesapeake Bay cleanup targets were missed—nitrogen reduction hit only 59% of the goal. This failure makes federal and state "backstops" inevitable, tightening regulations on every farmer and developer in the watershed.
   
   Locally, the constraints are even tighter. The City of Harrisonburg is actively searching for an additional 3.4 million gallons per day (MGD) of raw water supply just to secure its future through 2037. We are moving from an era of resource abundance to an era of resource management. The regions that thrive will be the ones that innovate in stewardship—treating water and soil as infrastructure rather than infinite gifts.

If these predetermined elements are real—and I believe they are—then the most important question isn’t whether change is coming. It’s what kind of futures will be available for our choosing?

How might this impact our futures?

As part of my practice, I’ll explore each element in detail. For now, I want to name the practical implications they raise as prompts for individuals, families, local leaders, educators, employers, and investors.

• The “silver tsunami" will test the capacity of our institutions
  As demographic trends deepen, some localities may face a gradual erosion of tax base growth at the same time service demands rise—especially in emergency response, healthcare access, and caregiving. The question isn’t whether we will spend more on these needs; it’s whether we can build or evolve institutions and make investments that allow our elders to age with dignity, create multi-generational connections, and be true stewards of their legacies.
  

• The “silver tsunami” is also a business ownership transition
  A large number of local businesses will change hands as owners retire. In Virginia, nearly 60,000 firms are owned by Baby Boomers. Some will sell to outside buyers. Some will close. Some will be consolidated.
  
  That raises a wealth-preservation question: how do we keep ownership local—and transfer businesses to employees and the next generation? ESOPs are one mechanism. Not the only one, but a meaningful one. The deeper issue is whether we treat ownership transition as a private problem—or as a community economic development strategy.
  

• I-81 improvements create an economic spine—how do we harness it?
  As I-81 improvements continue, the corridor becomes even more valuable for logistics, distribution, and freight movement. The follow-on question is: what is the next phase of development because of that capacity?
  
  If green trucking and automated logistics accelerate—as signaled by Volvo's transition to electric platforms in Dublin —there is an opening for new work that isn’t just “warehouse jobs,” but mechatronics, fleet systems, maintenance, telemetry, routing optimization, and logistics software. So the real questions become:

• What training pathways do we need in high schools and community colleges?

• How can higher education lead—beyond research, into workforce conversion and startup formation?

• How might we attract startups already working on electrified freight, autonomy, and logistics tooling?
  

• Passenger rail can re-map opportunity—if it connects the whole region
  The NRV rail connection is a major step, but it also raises a bigger regional question: how might we expand rail access for all communities in the region—not just one endpoint?
  
  State studies for a "Commonwealth Corridor" already envision connecting the Valley to Hampton Roads via Charlottesville. If we treat passenger rail as a regional system, we can accelerate opportunity by connecting communities like Harrisonburg, Staunton, Winchester, Covington, and Clifton Forge to hubs like DC, Charlottesville, and Richmond. The long-term impact isn’t just tourism; it’s labor mobility, college-to-career pathways, business connectivity, and a stronger “regional adjacency” that helps smaller towns compete for talent and investment without losing their character.
  

• Land is finite—how do we keep farming viable for the next generation?
  As land is converted to non-agricultural uses, the economics of getting started in farming get harder—especially for young farmers without capital. We know the pressure is real: Virginia has lost 500,000 acres of farmland in just five years.
  
  So instead of reacting parcel by parcel, we should ask: how might we proactively establish agricultural commons (or other ownership/lease models) that give new farmers a foothold before large tracts are permanently absorbed by development? This is a question about food, identity, landscape, and intergenerational opportunity—not nostalgia.
  

• Growth without resilience will fail under real-world constraints
  Recent water emergencies in Harrisonburg and the state's focus on groundwater management areas show that the ceiling is lower than we think. So the question is: how do we balance growth with sustainable practices that meet regulatory compliance and make our towns more resilient in the face of heavier storms, flooding risks, and infrastructure strain?
  
  Water, runoff, nutrient loads, permitting, and infrastructure stress aren’t “nice to have” considerations anymore. Add increased rainfall volatility driven by climate change, and the challenge becomes more immediate: communities need to be resilient not just economically, but physically.

References

1. Migration trends have changed. Most rural counties in Virginia are now seeing an influx of young adults. - Cardinal News, accessed November 28, 2025, https://cardinalnews.org/2025/09/15/migration-trends-have-changed-most-rural-counties-in-virginia-are-now-seeing-an-influx-of-young-adults/
   

2. Retirees Flocking to Virginia, According to New Weldon Cooper Center Research, accessed November 28, 2025, https://news.virginia.edu/content/retirees-flocking-virginia-according-new-weldon-cooper-center-research
   

3. 1 in 5 Virginians will be over 65 years by 2030, accessed January 3, 2026, https://www.coopercenter.org/research/1-5-virginians-will-be-over-65-years-2030
   

4. New Virginia Population Projections for 2030–2050, accessed January 3, 2026, https://www.coopercenter.org/research/new-virginia-population-projections-2030-2050
   

5. Most Small-Business Owners Lack a Succession Plan, accessed January 3, 2026, https://news.gallup.com/poll/657362/small-business-owners-lack-succession-plan.aspx
   

6. The small business closure crisis (Project Equity PDF), accessed January 3, 2026, https://project-equity.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Small-business-closure-crisis_Project-Equity_United-States.pdf
   

7. Top 5 Talking Points for CEPAs to Engage Business Owners (Exit Planning Institute), accessed January 3, 2026,
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8. VDOT Seeks Round 3 Input on I-81 Corridor Improvement Plan, accessed November 28, 2025, https://hrvampo.org/vdot-seeks-round-3-input-on-i-81-corridor-improvement-plan/
   

9. Extension of passenger rail to the New River Valley by 2027 https://vapassengerrailauthority.org/projects/nrvproject/
   

10. October- Governor Glenn Youngkin Announces Merck to Establish $3 Billion Center of Excellence for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing in Rockingham County - Governor of Virginia, accessed November 28, 2025, https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2025/october/name-1065807-en.html
    

11. Volvo Group to Increase North American Heavy Truck Production Capacity, accessed November 28, 2025,
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12. Volvo Trucks Redefines the Trucking Industry in North America with Start of Series Production of the All-New Volvo VNL, accessed November 28, 2025, https://www.volvotrucks.us/news-and-stories/press-releases/2024/october/volvo-trucks-redefines-the-trucking-industry-in-north-america-with-start-of-series-production-of-the-all-new-volvo-vnl/
    

13. BAE Systems awarded contract extension for operations at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, accessed November 28, 2025, https://www.baesystems.com/en-us/article/bae-systems-awarded-contract-extension-for-operations-at-radford-army-ammunition-plant
    

14. Utility-scale solar requires roughly 7.5 acres of land per megawatt https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/wilder_pubs/58/
    

15. Comprehensive Housing Assessment and Market Study - Harrisonburg City, accessed November 28, 2025, https://www.harrisonburgva.gov/sites/default/files/city-manager/files/Housing/Housing_Study/2.%20Harrisonburg%20Housing%20Study%20FINAL.pdf
    

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